Algorithm backtest results — 10 major Bitcoin events from 2020–2026
We ran RocketDip's composite scoring algorithm against every major Bitcoin crash, rally, and turning point since 2020. No hindsight adjustments — the same brackets and weights used today were applied retroactively to historical data.
The goal: answer one question — would RocketDip have told you to buy at the right times?
| Event | Date | Score | Signal | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID Crash | Mar 2020 | 8 | Strong Buy | ✓ Correct |
| May 2021 Crash | May 2021 | 7 | Buy | ~ Early |
| China Ban Crash | Jun 2021 | 8 | Strong Buy | ✓ Correct |
| Nov 2021 ATH | Nov 2021 | 1 | Weak | ✓ Correct |
| Luna/UST Collapse | Jun 2022 | 7 | Buy | ~ Early |
| FTX Collapse | Nov 2022 | 7 | Buy | ✓ Correct |
| March 2024 ATH | Mar 2024 | 2 | Weak | ✓ Correct |
| $100K Crossing | Dec 2024 | 1 | Weak | ✓ Correct |
| Oct 2025 Liquidation | Oct 2025 | 7 | Buy | ✗ False Positive |
| Feb 2026 Bloodbath | Feb 2026 | 8 | Strong Buy | ✓ Correct |
COVID crash (score 8), FTX collapse (score 7), Feb 2026 bloodbath (score 8) — all correctly flagged as strong buy signals. When everyone else was panicking, RocketDip's score went up. That's the whole point.
March 2024 ATH (score 2), $100K crossing (score 1), Nov 2021 ATH (score 1) — all showed low scores when FOMO was at its peak. If you only looked at the score and did nothing else, you would have avoided buying at every single top.
Every correct high-score event had Fear & Greed ≤20. Every correct low-score event had Fear & Greed ≥75. The 3-point weight for extreme fear is well-calibrated.
The October 2025 liquidation event produced a score of 7 during a rapid crash where the MA was still bullish. The algorithm scored it as a buy, but the price continued falling. We've since added a confidence qualifier that flags scores where rapid price action may not be fully reflected in slower-moving indicators like the MA cross.
Each event was scored using the exact same brackets and weights that RocketDip uses today. Historical RSI was calculated from daily closing prices via CoinGecko. Fear & Greed readings were sourced from Alternative.me's historical data. Moving average cross and 24-hour change were derived from price data at each event date.
For the full analysis with detailed indicator breakdowns for each event, read the complete blog post:
