How RocketDip Scored Every Major Bitcoin Crash

When I built RocketDip, I had one question: would this score have told me to buy at the right times?

It's easy to look at today's score and trust it. But the real test is whether it would have nailed the moments that mattered most — the crashes that turned out to be life-changing buying opportunities, and the tops where FOMO would have wrecked you.

So I went back and ran the algorithm against 10 major Bitcoin events from 2020 to 2026. Same formula. Same indicators. No hindsight adjustments.

Here's what I found.

How the Score Works (Quick Refresher)

RocketDip combines four indicators into a single score from 0 to 10:

Higher score = stronger buy signal. 7+ is "Strong Buy." 4–6 is "Moderate." Under 4 is "Weak." Simple.

The Events

This is the one event where the score got it wrong. The problem? The moving average is a lagging indicator. During a rapid crash within a bull trend, the 50-day MA can still be above the 200-day MA even though the trend has clearly reversed. By the time the MA catches up, the damage is done.

This is why we're adding a confidence qualifier — when the score is 7+ but the MA is bullish during a -5%+ daily dip, RocketDip will now show: "Signal strong but trend reversal not confirmed — monitor closely." It doesn't change the score. It adds context.

The Results

What I Learned

The algorithm never missed a major bottom.

COVID crash (score 8), FTX collapse (score 7), Feb 2026 bloodbath (score 8) — all correctly flagged as Strong Buy. This is the most important thing. When everyone else is panicking, RocketDip's score goes up. That's the whole point.

It correctly identified every major top.

March 2024 ATH (score 2), $100K crossing (score 1), $126K ATH (score 1) — all showed low scores when FOMO was at its peak. If you only looked at the score and did nothing else, you would have avoided buying at every single top. That's the anti-FOMO system working exactly as intended.

Fear & Greed is the strongest single predictor.

Every correct high-score event had F&G ≤20. Every correct low-score event had F&G ≥75. The 3-point weight for extreme fear is well-calibrated. Warren Buffett was right — be greedy when others are fearful.

The MA is a double-edged sword (and that's okay).

The bearish MA caps crash scores at 8 instead of 10. That's actually protective — it prevents the score from saying "perfect buy" during a crash that might have further to fall. The one false positive happened because the MA was bullish during a rapid crash. We've addressed this with the new confidence qualifier.

No changes to the core algorithm.

After reviewing all of this, I decided not to change a single bracket or weight in the scoring system. It performed well across 6 years of data covering crashes, rallies, tops, and bottoms. 7/10 correct with 2 "early but right" and only 1 false positive is a strong track record for a 4-indicator composite score.